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Analyst: Apple Could See $1 Billion in App Store Revenues
Wednesday, June 11th, 2008 at 4:00 PM - by Bryan Chaffin
Mr. Munster based his projections on his estimate of a user base of 78 million iPhone, iPhone 3G, and iPod touch users by the end of calendar 2009 (Apple’s fiscal year ends in September). He estimated that some 91% of those users will be App Store customers, and they will average $10 per year in App Store purchases, even thought he also thinks most apps available will be free.
"We estimate average total revenue per user of $10 by calendar year 2009," he wrote. "in other words, on average, App Store users will buy two apps (one free and one for $10, or any permutation thereof). Although this is our neutral case, we believe our assumption of $10 per user by the end of calendar year 2009 is actually quite conservative."
Mr. Munster’s estimate of 91% of iPhone and iPod touch users being active App Store customers is based in part on Apple’s claim that 98% of iPhone users browse the Web, and that 94% use e-mail on the devices.
Mr. Munster is among the first analysts to look at the potential of the App Store as a major source of revenue for Apple (a subject examined by this reporter in a column). Most analysts have instead focused on the price drop and change in business model represented by the iPhone 3G.
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