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Needham: iPhone Threatens RIM BlackBerry
Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 at 4:00 PM - by John Martellaro
Needham & Companys Charlie Wolf downgraded his rating on Research in Motion, Canadian makers of the BlackBerry, based on the threat from explosive sales of the Apple iPhone 3G.
"Sales of Apples iPhone 3G appear poised to blow through everyones forecasts," Mr. Wolf wrote in a research note to his clients on Wednesday. "While RIMs dominance of the enterprise market appears secure, at least for now, the companys great growth driver - the consumer market - is bound to come under siege because of the iPhone."
Mr. Wolf argues that RIMs success so far has been been by default, a lack of competitive offerings for the enterprise. "That ended on July 11 with the introduction of the iPhone 3G," Mr. Wolf wrote. "Apple and RIM are not engaged in a zero-sum game. Nonetheless, the iPhone is bound to cut into BlackBerrys incredible growth in the consumer smartphone market."
The Needham analyst is also skeptical that RIM can match Apples tight integration of the hardware and software as well as the application development program Apple has launched.
Mr. Wolf downgraded his Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate for RIM from US$4.05 to $3.70 for 2008 and from $6.25 to $4.80 in 2009.
In the most recent ChangeWave Research report, RIMs market share was hovering around 42 percent, while the Apple iPhone commanded about 9 percent. However, that was back in March. Even then, the percentage of buyers planning to buy an iPhone was rising, and with the recent launch of the iPhone 3G, the perception, now reinforced by Mr. Wolf, is that Apple is poised to take market share away from RIM.
Mr. Wolf made a good point. Apple has developed and sought a patent on a new gesture language, added significant features to the iPhone 3G for the enterprise, nourished a vigorous developer program and has a robust OS X-based smartphone OS and software development kit (SDK). One has to wonder what Apples competitors have been doing since June 30, 2007 to create encouraging prospects.
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