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Ted Landau's User Friendly View
The New iPhone: A Personal Q & A
Monday, June 9th, 2008 at 4:00 PM - by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
After having had time to reflect on all that was announced at the WWDC Keynote (watch it here), a number of questions lingered for me. I present them here (with my best attempt at the answers). I dont mean to suggest that these form a comprehensive FAQ about the iPhone 3G and 2.0 software, but they are the ones that most interested me.
Is the iPhone 3G, selling for as low as $199, really cheaper than the original iPhone?
Not really. The cost of a data plan is now $30/month instead of $20/month. This means that, by the end of 2 years, a new iPhone costs $240 more than the existing model -- more than eradicating the $200 you saved when you bought it.
Of course, Apple and AT&T could have raised the data plan by $10 without also dropping the price of the phone itself. Looked at from this perspective, you do save money.
On a related front, the reduced price of the iPhone comes with a new constraint: you must activate the iPhone at the time you purchase it. No longer will you have the convenience of buying an iPhone in a store and activating it at home. This also means you wont be able to buy an iPhone from the online Apple Store.
Too bad. I very much liked the convenience of "in home" activation.
As a side effect, this policy change considerably raises the cost for those who want to buy an iPhone only to unlock it and use it with another carrier (a procedure that Apple officially frowns upon).
Whats so great about the iPhone 2.0 software? There dont seem to be that many new features.
True, if you just casually look over the list of new features, there isnt much to get excited about. A scientific calculator, parental controls, bulk delete? These are not features that will send people flocking to buy an iPhone.
On top of that, there were several features that many people hoped to see in the new iPhone that showed up MIA instead. Theres no sign of of cut-and-paste; no voice-activated dialing; no ability to connect the iPhone to a Mac via Bluetooth. And more.
Still, my contention is that iPhone 2.0 is a momentous leap forward. Why? Because of the App Store.
The availability of third-party software changes the iPhone from a great mobile phone/PDA/iPod into a true computing platform. The limits of what the iPhone can do are now determined much more by the imagination of iPhone developers than by Apples prior restrictions. Again, watch the demos in the Keynote to see what I mean.
I especially expect games on the iPhone to be hugely popular, outpacing the popularity of games on the Mac itself.
The enterprise features may also prove to be big, pushing sales of iPhones into the workplace and competing with the Blackberry. However, given that I dont work in such an environment, it doesnt hold personal importance for me.
Does the App Store mean that there will no longer be a need to jailbreak an iPhone?
The jury is still out here. The final answer wont be known until we see what sorts of applications Apple blocks from the App Store. For example, the single biggest "jailbreak" use I make of my iPhone is to mount it on my Mac as a shared drive. Will Apple allow software in the App Store that can do this and other similar "hacking" activities? If yes, the push to jailbreak an iPhone will be eliminated for all but a very small minority of iPhone users. Otherwise, jailbroken iPhones will remain as popular as they are now.
Assuming that jailbreaking remains desirable, how soon will we be able to jailbreak an iPhone running 2.0 software?
From things that I have read, I expect a successful jailbreak to be possible within days of the release of the new software. But we wont know for sure until the 2.0 software is released in July.
What about the new hardware features in the iPhone 3G? Do they really represent a big change from the old iPhone?
Yes. The single biggest annoyance about the existing iPhone, at least for me, was the slow loading of Web pages via EDGE. The 3G iPhone will make a world of difference here.
The addition of GPS is another boon. I was debating getting a Garmin nuvi. While the Garmin device still has some advantages over an iPhone, such as spoken directions, its not enough to make me want to get the nuvi. Ill be satisfied with the iPhone.
In fact, it is already confirmed that TomTom has an iPhone version of its navigation software in the works. Expect Garmin to follow. It will be interesting to see how (or if) stand-alone GPS products can compete, as the iPhone 3G begins to penetrate the market.
Will we ever see video out on the iPhone?
Personally, I am getting really tired of seeing these iPhone demonstrations at each Apple event, with the iPhone display shown on a large screen -- and yet not be able to do this myself.
When I give talks at Macworld Expo and user groups, I would love to be able to do the same thing that all the people at the WWDC Keynote were so easily able to do. Unfortunately, theres still no word from Apple as to when, or if, this option will be offered to the masses.
Will Mobileme be a success?
Probably not a big one at first. At $99/year, it is still expensive as such services go. But it is a definite improvement from .mac. And I expect the new service to be more successful than its predecessor.
I am particularly impressed with Mobilemes Web 2.0 applications (take the Guided Tour here to see what I mean). These Web apps make about as strong a case as I have yet seen for giving up on desktop applications in favor of Web-based software.
The ability to share a large file, simply by storing it on your iDisk and automatically emailing a link, is another feature that I am sure I will be using quite often.
It is not entirely clear to me yet whether applications such as Microsofts Entourage will directly work with Mobileme, or whether they will only have indirect access via exporting data to iCal and Address Book (as Entourage now does). Personally, if it is the latter, this should be enough to get me to drop Entourage and shift to Apples apps, if only to get the easy push capabilities included as part of Mobileme.
What about .mac features not included with Mobileme? Are they gone?
What about iCards for example? They appear to be gone, but that was not officially confirmed. {Its now confirmed; see my added comment below.}
Similarly, will existing .mac Web galleries be automatically converted to Mobileme galleries? Probably, but that was not clearly stated either.
Will you eventually have to shift from your old .mac to your new .me email address? Probably at some point, but not right away.
Overall, Steve made mention in the Keynote about preserving existing .mac content and features. However, it was all rather vague.
The cheapest iPod touch is $299. You can now get an iPhone 3G for $199. Will this force a dramatic drop in the price of the iPod touch?
Not necessarily. If you purchase an iPhone 3G, you now are forced to sign a 2 year activation contract before you even leave the store. In the end, this keeps the iPhone as more expensive than an iPod touch. Still, I wouldnt be surprised to see a $100 drop in the price of all touch models. Doing this, however, could have a domino effect on the prices of the nano and classic iPods. Apple has a somewhat tricky juggling act to pull off here. It will be interesting to see how it manages the task.
In any case, I predict a big boost in sales of the touch, along with the iPhone itself. With the arrival of the App Store, the iPod touch becomes a much better value compared to the other iPod models. The touch becomes a full-featured computer in your pocket, rather than an iPod with Wi-Fi capabilities.
How do services such as Loopt (as demoed in the Keynote) know where your friends are? Could someone locate me even if I did not want them to know where I was?
Loopt can only find other users who have signed up for the Loopt service and who have a GPS-enabled device. In other words, if you have a collection of friends who all have an iPhone 3G (or similar device) and who all sign up for Loopt and who all agree to be on your "friends" list, youll be able to find them -- assuming they have their iPhone with them and turned on. Otherwise, no.
Still, I imagine where this could get you into trouble. Imagine a married couple who use Loopt. One spouse could potentially discover that their mate is at a motel when he or she is supposedly at work. Hmmm.
Ted Landau is the founder of MacFixIt, and the author of Take Control of Your iPhone and other Mac help books. You can .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) Ted Landau or post your polite comments below.
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