iPodObserver Forum

1Q Mac shipments

2009-11-16T00:03:59-05:00

My unscientific methods are pointing toward an excellent 1Q for Mac sales. The new iMacs are selling well and the 27” seems to be supply constrained. Likewise the new Macbooks. If not for the terrible macro economic background, we might even see a return to the days of 30% growth. But as things are, I am thinking low 20s.

My early line is for 3.15 MM shipments for the December quarter.

Anybody else feeling this level of optimism?

Celebrity Bulls and Bears

2009-11-20T02:19:07-05:00

Bulls: Louis Navieller, Ken Fisher, ...

Bears: John Hussman, Bob Prechter, Glenn Neely, Meredith Whitney, Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Marc Faber, ...

Around Jun-Jul, bears forecasted that market had peaked and would fall by 50% by year end. After consolidating for about a month, market resumed rallying and had broken above 1100 briefly. These bears had since readjusted their targets and insisted that they are right. Most bears think 1100 is the peak and the second dip has started. Could they be correct this time?

Btw, S&P has yet to recover 61.8% (about 1230) of its decline from 07’s peak. Hence, from the EW perspective, S&P could be in a B-wave (up), that would be followed by a C-wave (down). Breaking above 1230 would mean ABC could be 123 of an impulse.

Edit: Added David Rosenberg. There are more bears than bulls. Contrarians would be bullish.

Edit: Added Marc Faber.

The WEEKEND RANT. “Would YOU Like to be MY Partner?” { Why recovery will take forever….}

2009-11-20T18:30:28-05:00

Would you like to be my partner?...

I’d like to make you a business offer. Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can’t turn me down, as you’ll come to understand in a moment…

Here’s the deal. You’re going to start a business or expand the one you’ve got now. It doesn’t really matter what you do or what you’re going to do. I’ll partner with you no matter what business you’re in – as long as it’s legal. But I can’t give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won’t give you any labor – that’s definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you’re allowed to operate your business. That’s my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.

Now in return for my rules, I’m going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business, each year. Half seems fair, doesn’t it? I think so. Of course, that’s half of your profits. You’re also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you’ve got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you’re my partner. It’s only “fair.”

Now… after you’ve put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business and after you’ve worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you’d like to cash out – to finally live the good life.

Whether or not this is “fair” – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I’m happy for you to sell whenever you’d like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.

I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That’s all true. But I’ve done my part, too. I’ve collected 50% of the profits each year. And I’ve always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business. Oh… and one more thing…

Even after you’ve sold the business and paid all of my fees… I’d recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you’ve been retired for years, when you die, you’ll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth. After all, I’ve got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don’t think it’s “fair” for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children. All in all, if you’re a very successful entrepreneur… if you’re one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you’ll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.

I’m sure you’ll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn’t really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I’ll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail. That’s how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is Amerika, isn’t it?

That’s the offer Amerika gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…

Dell’s Demise

2009-11-19T23:45:58-05:00

I’ve posted my thoughts here.

Read the results here.

I’ve said too many times over the past few years Dell is fading into oblivion.

Will Apple break a la carte data with “tether anywhere” plan?

2009-11-21T12:26:36-05:00

Right now I pay $$ to AT&T for home internet, mobile internet (iPhone x2), and will presumably will add an additional data plan with the MacPad.

Could Apple and AT&T be holding off on official U.S. tethering to finally put the mesh data network in place? Customers would pay one fee for ‘data anywhere’. The fee would probably be outrageous, but would be compelling if less than the aggregate of a la carte plans. For me, that number would have to be less than $110/month. The data anywhere plan would apply to any registered device connecting to the network, and would allow you to tether any of them to each other.

If any company could break this traditional inefficient model, replace it with a compelling alternative, and thereby drive widespread adoption, it would be Apple.

AAPL News Updates

2009-11-08T14:10:46-05:00

Time for a new updates topic for November and December.

Contact Photos from Address Book in 10.6.2 will not sync over to iPhone 2G

2009-11-21T11:45:22-05:00

Hey Gang, I have an odd problem. I recently bought a 21.5” iMac, moving from a G5 iMac 20” iSight. I did not use the migration assistant but instead moved the required files over to make sure my address book made it over intact. When I use Address Book within Snow Leopard, I see all my contact default photos fine. The problem is that even though I sync my address book every time I sync my iPhone, none of the photos make it over. Even more oddly, my account photo (on the iPhone) is wrong. Has anyone else experienced this? Any solutions?

Cheers

EDIT: iTunes, iPhone, OS are all up to date :confused:

Amazon selling Pre for $80

2009-11-21T00:23:16-05:00

Probably doesn’t deserve it own thread, but it’s a slow news day….

Here.

Elliott Wave Analysis

2008-12-02T12:08:28-05:00

Short-term EW for AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$16.42.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now?

Consolidated past observations for easy reference:
C=Bearish impulse from $192.24 to $79.14. Fifth wave of C=$112.19 to $79.14.
If fifth wave of C is an ending diagonal, AAPL would be rejected at $95, $105 or $112 and establishes a new low of $66. Chart.
If it is not an ending diagonal, the relevant resistances based on fib ratios of $202.96 to $79.14 are: $126, $141 and $155. Chart.
Likely scenario is wave X peaking between $160 to $200. Miracle (for those believing in Neo) is beginning of Cycle V.

Is 81.45 of VIX a truncated wave 5 and is in a multi-month downtrend?

AAPL Intraday Updates

2009-11-15T18:17:16-05:00

Let’s go!