Tue Jan 31, 2006 3:02 pm

A billion smellphones there may be, but how many will be subscribed to Verizon? 50 million tops? And I doubt most of them will be music-capable.

Napster's dwindling popularity tells us that most people aren't interested in a subscription model, long-term. And Verizon wants $15/month for V Cast while Napster is losing customers at $10/month?

Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez.

Tue Jan 31, 2006 3:25 pm

Let's see, if there was even the slightest indication that music enabled cell phones were starting to overtake the iPod, guess what Apple would do? They'd find a solution!

Apparently this analyst thinks he's smarter than Apple. Thanks for the insight. I'm sure these thoughts have never crossed the minds of anyone at Apple.

Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:47 pm

Strategic Anal... who?! Gee, I wonder if the reason I have never heard of these guys is that their 'insight' seems more like a feeble attempt to sound like they might know something about a popular topic. Sure! Eventually, a billion people will have a phone with the option of joining a service through which they can very slowly download Microsoft DRM-ridden, poor quality music, over a wireless medium that has been proven not to be reliable, with monthly rental fees and/or exorbitant per unit costs. Um, yah. That is a good bet! Or... NOT!

Wed Feb 01, 2006 12:20 am

	Quote:
	would much rather have a cell phone enabled iPod than a music enabled cell phone. For the most part cell phone interface designers are stuck with a clumsy design.

True, but consider trying to make a phone call with a clickwheel. It would take nigh unto forever. The iPod interface is very well-designed for choosing something from a one-dimensional list. It is reasonably well-designed for going through heirarchial menus, as long as you don't need to see where you've been or where you're going. (IOW, you can see only one layer at a time, not the parent nor the daughters. The iTunes interface lets you see two layers--and, until the nested folders inside playlists thing, that's all there were.) Entering data with a clickwheel, though, would be hell on earth.

Cel phones and PDAs have very different interface needs from music players, as you must be able to enter data. Cel phones have to be able to enter numbers quickly and surely. The keypad of a touchtone phone was taken from the layout of a 10-key mechanical adding machine, which was developed to be able to enter numbers quickly with one hand without looking at the keyboard. (Such adding machines predated touchtone phones and computer keyboards by decades.) PDAs need to be able to easily input text, more than just numbers, so those with keyboards use a QWERTY thumb keyboard. However, those are terrible for inputing numbers with one hand. They are inherently two-handed and most put the numbers on the top row of letter keys, so you have to push another button first to input numbers. The Treo 600 and 650 compromise by using the middle of the keyboard as phone number keys when the device is in phone mode. Even so, it's still quite easy to hit the wrong key.

Human-machine interface design depends upon what the machine has to do and what the person has to control. Early automobiles used a tiller for steering, like the rudder on a sailboat, but that didn't work well. If it was designed for short-radius turns, it would be so sensitive at moderate speeds that the slightest twitch would turn the vehicle over, as the tiller could only move maybe 45 degrees in each direction. By using a wheel with gears, the driver could make small adjustments at speed and, by turning the wheel through a large angle, still make the short-radius turns required for parking, etc. An interface that works well for one situation may be terrible for another. (Just consider digital clocks vs round dial clocks. If you want to know precisely what time it is, the digital clock is better. However, if you want to know how long something has been going on, how much of an hour is left, or to tell time at a glance, the round dial is better.)