Tue Nov 07, 2006 4:47 pm

This is a bit of old news: http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2006/11/1/5826

But I'll bite:

My take is that ABI research is a group of "Survey Trolls".

Who wants free press? Simply create a survey with questions that make certain answers more likely than others. Then publish it in a "Press Release": "Wow, look at our survey results!!" Hot topics: Anything Mac or iPod related is bound to get free press (and they have).

Has anyone ever seen Dave Winer's video of John Dvorak bragging about how easy it is to [intentionally] piss off Mac users and get tons of hits on his site? We should all take note of that and not bite on the bait.

There's a link to the video at the top of this page: http://www.scripting.com/2006/06/09.html

Tue Nov 07, 2006 5:36 pm

From what I've read on other sites about this survey, the key word in the survey question is "consider", i.e., "would you CONSIDER buying a Zune?"

Blows away this headline doesn't it?

Tue Nov 07, 2006 7:13 pm

It's a web-based survey. That means it's not even worth the paper it's printed on (yes, I know it isn't printed on paper).

That ABI reached a conclusion based on this survey shows that they are either totally full of $#!% or totally stupid, or both.

Tue Nov 07, 2006 7:36 pm

If you take a look at the article

http://www.abiresearch.com/abiprdisplay.jsp?pressid=754

and then look at the methodology

<<Methodology: data contained within this report is derived from a Web-based survey among a nationally-balanced and demographically-representative sample of 1,725 online consumers (age 18 and older). The consumer survey was conducted in October 2006. Respondents were provided a photo and description of the Microsoft Zune device before being asked about their likelihood to choose it over a competitive MP3 player>>

you can understand why they got the results that they did. To me, it seems like something that was probably funded by MSFT. If you wanted to get a true idea about what people want without undue influence, they should have polled people what they would buy before showing them the Zune propaganda. After reading about how great the Zune is in promotional material, it is no wonder that people would consider buying it. They got what they paid for, a very biased survey.

Neal

Wed Nov 08, 2006 1:24 am

I'm an iPod owner along with my wife and my brother and my niece, and my brothers wife. None of us would even consider looking at the Zune, let alone buy one. Nice try Microsoft, but it won't work with your fake survey. Your service isn't compatible with anything else and I'm not going to change

my music type anytime soon. The iPod and iTunes has it all and there's no reason to change, not now, not ever.

Wed Nov 08, 2006 1:45 pm

My biggest thing is that they are not transparent about their methodology.

How they get people to take the survey matters a lot. Did they put an advertisement on a website indicating that they could win a Zune by completing a questionnaire? Imagine the type of people you would get to take the study. It would be totally worthless in judging iPod owners' loyalty.

I would like to know more just to debunk or validate the study, but it really isn't worth my time.

If iPO asked some more serious questions (BTW, thank you for the update about the commissioning of the study), they could write a whole new article about it.

Wed Nov 08, 2006 3:52 pm

I can't believe the negativity, there is no need to attack the survey on ungrounded assertions unless you're emotionaly attached to Apple and the iPod. As it turns out, the survey was not commissioned by Microsoft, you just don't like/disagree with their findings. Are you so swift to dismiss the optimistic surveys about the iPod halo effect?

Zune won't blow the iPod out of the water, not in the foreseeable future anyway. Zune will only launch in the U.S., it won't be available in Europe until, I don't remember, was it fall 2007? Clearly, Apple is at an advantage here.

MS is attacking the market with a high-end player when most people buy less expensive flash players (iPod shuffle, nano, or other brands). The average selling price for the iPod is under $200, Apple is selling more nanos/shuffles, the 5 gen. iPod is only the high-end pricey model. At first, MS will compete with the 5G iPod.

The current Zune player is only a first foray. MS will launch flash players, maybe a music phone… but by that time Apple will launch newer models too. There is no reason to panic and dismiss everything Microsoft does, more competition is always good.

Wed Nov 08, 2006 4:57 pm

	engrish wrote:
	I can't believe the negativity, there is no need to attack the survey on ungrounded assertions unless you're emotionaly attached to Apple and the iPod. As it turns out, the survey was not commissioned by Microsoft, you just don't like/disagree with their findings. Are you so swift to dismiss the optimistic surveys about the iPod halo effect?

To some extent I agreee with you, engrish. Great nick, by the way, I always think of a ronery Kim Il Jong when I hear that pun.

I'll reserve judgment on the Zune until I see one but I have used a Toshiba Gigabeat, upon which the Zune's design is based, and it's a very usable device.

So, yeah, perhaps we should all cut MS some slack on this. Perhaps J Allard has done a great job and perhaps the Apple fans should be thankful for this because some genuine competition may force Apple to offer a better product with a better warranty and better customer service.

Good competition is healthy.

OTOH, most of the people posting to these fora have seen MS's battle strategy so often that they can't help but be sceptical. On top of which the long time Apple users tend to hold onto a siege mentality after enduring so many years of being the "other guys" in the computing universe. The iPod has helped bring Apple's other products to wider attention while (apparently) gaining some market share and the fanboys go on the defensive when they see Microsoft wheeling up the battering ram.

I'm lookng forward to seeing this battle play out. I expect Apple's generals have long exited the war room with a sound counter-offfensive that will bring the iPod to a clear victory on the field of competition, although it will certainly lose some ground.

Wed Nov 08, 2006 8:08 pm

	Neal wrote:
	The ipods will do very well.

Of course, see my first post. For the time being MS is only competing with the $250 5G iPod and Zune will only be available in the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Apple has 40,000 distribution points for the iPod, Microsoft is only entering the market. It appears that the new shuffle is selling very well, etc.

	Neal wrote:
	To show people an advertisement for the Zune…

How could they be surveyed if they don't know what the question is about? They were showed a picture and a spec sheet, it wasn't an ad. ABI did not push the Zune, iPod owners know what an iPod is, other customers too, or they're living under a rock in Afghanistan.

	Neal wrote:
	But again, the study would seem to be saying there is a certain dissatisfaction with the ipod that most buyers are willing to switch.

That's your interpretation. The important finding is that iPod owners are not so different than the rest, 59% of those who owned another brand and 58% (about the same) of iPod owners said they could consider a Zune. iPod owners, the vast majority of which are Windows users, are open minded, they're not fanatically attached to Apple or the iPod, they could consider switching brands as easily as anyone else. The iPod don't come with a padlock, unless you have purchased hundreds of tracks on iTunes.

If the majority of iPod owners were also Mac users the figure would be very different, few would even consider a Zune. Most people posting here are Mac users and it seems that we can't fathom the fact that customers won't necessarily react like us.

The latest iPod update was a bit underwhelming, as a customer it's good to know that Apple can't afford to slack-off because, going forward, music phones and Microsoft players will likely pose a threat. Without competition, Apple could sell the same iPod -only slightly smaller- over and over again until the end of time.

	rspress wrote:
	Maybe ABI stands for Anything But Ipods. I do not trust ABI as far as I could throw them. This “survey” has Microsofts heavy hands all over it.

It was not commissioned by Microsoft, ABI Research is an independent research firm, they sell reports to subscribers through their research service.

	guest 4:53 pm wrote:
	In addition, as some other said, we don't know the 'base' that these %s are based on - is it 58% of 1000 or 10? […] What's worse though is that if the sample was not randomly selected then these data cannot be generalised to the wider population.

It's a simple survey, no need to overanalyze like if it was a Holy Revelation or a study about global climate change conducted by a Nobel prize winner. One way or another, it doesn't mean the sky is falling.

Business Week: "Of about 1,700 consumers surveyed by consultants at ABI Research, 28% said they were extremely interested in buying a new MP3 player in the next year."

483 customers (28% of 1,725) were extremely interested in buying a new MP3 player in the next year. We don't know how many were iPod owners.

My biggest gripe with the survey is that we don't know the "percentage of likelihood." ABI said: "Of those responding that they were likely to do so [buying a new MP3 player in the next year], 58% of those identifying themselves as existing iPod owners and 59% of those who owned other brands said they would be "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to choose a Microsoft Zune player."

How many customers were "somewhat likely" / "extremely likely"? This is unfortunate because most people won't buy the product unless they start saying they're 50% likely to do so. The same applies to the Mac.

Business Week (about the iPod halo effect): "Those people were asked to attach a percentage to their likelihood of buying a Mac. Mind you, gauging people's intentions is tricky. Of those who say they're 40% likely to do something, generally speaking only 1% actually ever end up doing it, Harris says. So if 1,800 people give answers in this range, only 18 will actually do it. But once people start saying they're 50% likely to do something, they're a lot more serious about doing it, according to the pollster."

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:51 pm

also, it's well known in marketing (the planning part anyway) that when you do a survey what you're actually investigating is the preferences of the kind of window-licker who fills in surveys. For example:

"Of the 10 people who could be arsed to express a preference, 9 of them said their cat preferred Whiskas"

Antler-tip to LaurieF.

Sun Nov 12, 2006 8:27 pm

... and anti-competitive behaviour, as has been seen with the payola to Universal Music.

Sun Dec 10, 2006 7:08 pm

LOL

Nice work, there, Diskgrinder.

If you've got any left, can I have some?