Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:12 pm

"Cell phones aren't clunky, inadequate devices."

Really? I see all sorts of compromises between features, ease of use, size, battery life... There's plenty of room for improvement. Whether Apple will be the ones to make a big leap is an open question. But I sure hope somebody does.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:32 pm

If it's going to be such a failure, then why has it already sold out?

http://www.crazyapplerumors.com/?p=734

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:28 pm

Well, I for one hope this iPhone is in fact the ultimate multi-purpose device, with iTunes, iCal, Address Book, etc. It is such a royal hassle to have all these gadgets on me. I only have so many pockets, not to mention that when the summer comes, I have to either give up carrying my Palm and/or my iPod, or wear them geekilly on my belt. Once iPhone arrives, I'm getting rid of the iPod and Palm.

As for the doom-saying article, iPhone will succeed. Let me qualify; halo effect is slowly working with Macs. Now, these are $1000+ machines. That means, many people, who have $250 for an iPod, still won't pay $1300 for an iMac (refurbs are less, but no switcher knows about this). However, they WILL pay extra $50 for an iPod that's also an iPhone. Or, to put this differently, this iPhone will not be just another of the hundreds of phones offered by your cell carrier. It will be sold as an iPod that is also a phone (kind of like iPod with video). Whole world wants to have an iPod (unless they already have one, in which case, they want a newer model). If iPhone comes into the MP3 market, everybody will know about it and want it. In other words, while carriers will probably desperately want to sell it (perhaps even subsidise it with annual contracts), you'll be buying it in the stores where iPods are sold, next to the Nano, Shuffle and the rest. When every single teen in the world knows the difference between iPod with video and the Nano, they'll immediately know about the iPhone as soon a it's out. No Nokia, Motorola or Sony-Ericsson can ever hope to get that much mindshare.

If there is indeed an iPhone, it will sell. It will probably become another vehicle with strong halo, luring switchers over.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:39 pm

If Kanellos really believes that smellphone interfaces are "...pretty good. Really good" then he's using something I've never seen before, and certainly nothing with a Motorola logo on it. Especially if the phone in question is multi-function. The phone part is simple enough to get right — that interface has had 100 years of use and and debugging — but if that's all that Apple is making, why bother? Any putative iPhone will have to be multi-function… the question is, what functions will it have?

I'd have to say it's pretty certain that the iPhone will have a good address book and scheduler, and will play well with the Address Book & iCal apps on OSX — these are functions that would be useful in a device you're carrying around with you all the time anyway — and will have Bluetooth capability since most Macs also have Bluetooth as standard equipment now. I don't know about built-in cameras… Moto sets the bar for sucky cameras, and it wouldn't be hard for Apple to beat them (it wouldn't be hard for Microsoft to beat them, for that matter). IMO, decent optics will beat a zillion megapixels, but that might be too expensive.

One thing that does work well with the smellphones I've used is the voice-dialing feature — at least in quiet conditions — push a button, say a name, and let the phone dial the number. Hey, phones don't have to have cameras, but they have to have audio input, right? What would be really trick, in my opinion, would be to ditch the camera and include a digital audio recorder for reminders or anything else — it would be a natural fit for a phone, and you could offload the audio into iTunes or even GarageBand for post-processing. Great audio input would probably be cheaper to build in than even Moto-level video, and would immediately set the iPhone apart from everything else out there.

Like the guest immediately above me says, though, we'll have to wait and see what Apple comes up with.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:20 pm

	Bosco wrote:
	The difference between MP3 players then and cell phones now is that few people had MP3 players then and nobody had an MP3 player contract.

True, which is why the next <I>wildly successful</i> version of mobile phone will seamlessly integrate contract telephony (if desired, with the carrier of your choice) with non-contract telephony (such as VoIP or iChat). I also agree with the comments about cell phone interfaces. I had a Treo 600, a RAZR, and now have a HTC Wizard (PocketPC-based). All are awful. You can get your task done, but you end up walking into buildings or driving off the road in the process. Hard. I want easy, and will pay extra for it from Apple if they ever think to release such a wildly intuitive device.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:31 pm

Must be the same guy at C|Net who predicted that the tablet PC, the Origami, and Zune would be revolutionary market leaders.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:12 pm

What really, totally sucks with cell phones (besides the UI, as some might argue) is the combine created by the providers. Eliminate that anti-consumer and anti-competition problem and you will have a product that really sells, and especially if you can fix problems the pundits don't have enough creativity and imagination to see for themselves.

Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:16 pm

	rpaege wrote:
	What really, totally sucks with cell phones (besides the UI, as some might argue) is the combine created by the providers. Eliminate that anti-consumer and anti-competition problem and you will have a product that really sells, and especially if you can fix problems the pundits don't have enough creativity and imagination to see for themselves.

Yeah, so what do you think it would cost to put up a nationwide CDMA network that can match Sprint's? The rule for getting phones now is if you want coverage, go with Sprint. If you want good service, go with Verizon. If you want to bring your own phone, go with Cingular. Where does Apple fit into that as anything but a phone supplier? Except today, phone suppliers do things the carriers' way, not the other way around.

I'm not saying Apple wouldn't be a welcome player in the cell phone business. I'm just saying there's nothing they can do unless they build the phone and network from scratch. It's a worse business move that Microsoft with the Zune. There is so little infrastructure needed to support a Zune flop. Just a music store. For Apple to support an iPhone flop, it needs a whole nationwide network.