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Analyst: Apple TV May Surpass TiVo, Netflix

Monday, March 26th, 2007 at 11:40 AM - by

Apple TV has been in customer hands for only a few days, and ThinkEquity analyst Jonathan Hoopes thinks it is already poised to eventually surpass TiVo and Netflix. TeleClick reports that Mr. Hoopes predicts somewhere between 25 and 70 percent of all Mac users will purchase Apple's streaming media device within the next five years.

If so, those numbers, along with sales to Windows PC users, will help to push Apple TV market penetration beyond TiVo's 4.4 million digital recorder subscribers, as well as the 8.8 million Netflix DVD rental subscribers. And those Apple TV users are expected to purchase a sizable amount of content from the iTunes Store.

"As a digital media content delivery vehicle positioned in users' living rooms," he said, "we think the AppleTV/iTunes combination could become as disruptive to legacy video purchase-and-consumption behavior as the iPod/iTunes combination has been to the traditional music business model."

Mr. Hoopes also feels that Apple may eventually move Apple TV into the game console market to compete with the big name gaming consoles from Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony.

Should Apple's home media center device prove as popular as Mr. Hoopes predicts, it could add over US$10 billion to the company's market capitalization over the next few years.

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Biff said:

member since 08 Apr 2004 with 1479 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Mar 26, 2007 3:09 pm

"Mr. Hoopes predicts somewhere between 25 and 70 percent of all Mac users will purchase Apple's streaming media device within the next five years."

Haha. Wow. Another brilliant insight brought to you by an analyst. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what an Apple TV does that is useful. Carrying your entire music collection in your pocket is a no brainer. But this thing... I just don't get it.

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rpaege said:

member since 16 Dec 2005 with 96 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Mar 26, 2007 4:11 pm

Me either Biff. I have an HD tv (two years old) with DVI and component inputs but both are used by my cable box and my DVD player, so I have no idea how I would hook up an Apple TV without spending another pile of cash on some sort of expensive switch box. It's just isn't going to happen for me.

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A guest said: (hide)

Mon Mar 26, 2007 7:20 pm

Most new TV's have multiple inputs, and have way dropped in price. I have been lusting after a new 32" LCD TV from Vizio, at Costco (perfect size for my apt.) . Mind you, this TV has a great picture, and it's only $600! It would have cost triple - at least- a couple years ago. It has 2 HDMI inputs + 2 component inputs!

Sometimes, being an early adopter bites.

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A guest said: (hide)

Mon Mar 26, 2007 7:33 pm

Neil says;

You guys are missing the obvious. AppleTV is NOT a Tivo unit. Nor does iTunes have the vast library of DVDs as does Netflix.

Me thinks that AppleTV will do well, but not as well as folks thinks. It will be a blimp in comparison to other Apple products.

This will happen as most folks just don't get what the AppleTV can do - much like the author. It doesn't record, it doesn't rip DVDs. It is just a video streaming/audio streaming, temporary storage for iTunes data on your computer. AppleTV is NOT a stand alone device. Unlike Netflix or Tivo.

And Tivo is a different class of vid recorder altogether.

My two cents..

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boric*acid said:

member since 13 Jun 2006 with 28 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Mar 26, 2007 7:37 pm

I think you mean 'blip' in the continuum, guest. I agree. One could do so much more with even a Mac Mini.

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iJack said:

member since 13 Jun 2001 with 313 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Tue Mar 27, 2007 12:13 am

Guest wrote:
Neil says;

...Nor does iTunes have the vast library of DVDs as does Netflix..

Not yet, it doesn't. But that's not to say it won't.

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LaurieF said:

member since 15 Jun 2001 with 3547 posts, TMO Forum Mod, send him a message or view his profile

Tue Mar 27, 2007 12:29 am

Biff wrote:
"Mr. Hoopes predicts somewhere between 25 and 70 percent of all Mac users will purchase Apple's streaming media device within the next five years."

Haha. Wow. Another brilliant insight brought to you by an analyst.

But he's so much better and precise at it than, well, I am, for example. Not being an analyst, the most accurate figure I could have come up with would have been between 0 and 100% of all Mac users. See what a multi-squillion analytical salary can do for you?

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DaiMac said:

member since 29 Jun 2001 with 952 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:58 am

I think this analysis may end up being conservative if the pace of hacking that I've seen this weekend continues. Not only do people have it booting via a recovery mode on the USB port, but they've hacked 120 and 160 GB drives into it already as well. Looks like an easy process. Once the USB boot/control safeguards are fully hacked around we'll be able to add codecs and such without even having to crack out aTVs open. This could be the next Apple I/II in terms of its popularity with hackers/videophiles. Just like with the iPod, 80% of the content we'll end up playing will be from non-Apple sources, but that other 20% will be a major revenue stream for both Apple and the movie/tv studios (in spite of themselves). I've already spent more than I care to admit on iTunes content as a direct result of getting an aTV, despite having access to tons of non-Apple digital content already through various sources. Its just so easy and for the most part the quality is good on the shows I've watched.

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JimB12 said:

member since 13 Jan 2007 with 21 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:36 pm

I don't get it, why would I buy a device dedicated to streaming media? Seems like another box to clutter the living room. I'm interested in unifying my devices. If you're gonna hack an apple tv with a bigger hard drive, why not just buy cheaper components and build a dvd player/tv recorder/internet streaming media device all in one box, that's Netflix/Tivo/AppleTV all together in one box.

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