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The Case of the Missing iPhones

Monday, January 28th, 2008 at 2:20 PM - by

Ever since Steve Jobs announced in his Macworld keynote that Apple had sold 4 million iPhones to date and AT&Ts Rick Lindner said that AT&T had activated about 2 million iPhones, analysts have been trying to figure out where the "missing" iPhones are, according to Eric Savitz at Seeking Alpha on Monday.

On Monday, analyst Toni Sacconaghi offered his latest theory. He's revised his estimate from unlocked phones from 15 to 20 percent of all units sold to about 27 percent. Apparently, unlocked iPhones are being seen in good numbers in countries where the phone is not officially sold, especially Asia.

Mr. Sacconaghi noted, as Apple is well aware of, unlocked iPhones are a problem for Apple since they receive no carrier payments and it could make it difficult to sign additional carriers.

Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital weighed in on the situation, and came with up with similar data but with a different conclusion. His take was that the unlocked iPhones "are financially positive for Apple," in that they "bode well for global iPhone demand."

Needham’s Charlie Wolf wrote that Apple might have sold more iPhones, perhaps 1.5 million more, over the holidays if they hadn't introduced the iPod touch.

iPO notes that cannibalism across product lines in the iPod and iPhone families is a topic that analysts always bring up at Apple's earnings report call in, but Apple has not provided much insight on the topic so far. That's probably because Apple wants to take action to correct any such issues before investors start to worry about it.

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Tiger said:

member since 17 Jun 2003 with 1018 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jan 28, 2008 3:33 pm

How about we call the situation "at best, a draw" for now. They may help increase demand or they may also cause a problem for Apple.

At this point, nobody really knows and it's all just "experts" pontificating.

I get enough of that from CNN, C-SPAN, and the NYTimes.

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Bosco said:

member since 03 Jun 2002 with 1002 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jan 28, 2008 5:07 pm

Clearly, Apple retail store employees are stealing them and just wearing them (unactivated) to look cool. We can all do our part to police this situation by asking anyone prominently displaying their iPhone to get us a quick AAPL stock quote. If they are unable or unwilling to comply, they are obviously part of this ring of criminality.

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JonGl said:

member since 12 Jan 2006 with 113 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jan 28, 2008 6:29 pm

I know where they all are! They are in Poland! I went to our local electronics bazaar a couple weekends ago, and saw a bunch of them--I was looking for a used Treo, and couldn't find a one, yet iPhones were everywhere! And a friend in Warsaw was offered one by his local cell phone guru... Bunches of these are coming from France, but not all. That's for sure. Oh, and if you look on the Polish auction site, you find bunches and bunches more... If it's like that here in Poland, you can bet it's even bigger in other places.

-Jon

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A guest said: (hide)

Mon Jan 28, 2008 8:10 pm

JonGI-

Do you see many iPhones in actual use rather than just on offer? It is really difficult to sort our whether or not the iPhone is actually being used in the many unofficial markets where it is on offer.

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JonGl said:

member since 12 Jan 2006 with 113 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:32 am

Anonymous wrote:
JonGI-

Do you see many iPhones in actual use rather than just on offer? It is really difficult to sort our whether or not the iPhone is actually being used in the many unofficial markets where it is on offer.

Ay, there's the rub... Since I've seen them, I've tried looking for them, but I haven't personally seen any in use yet. Although, the fellow in Warsaw is using one. Of course, the best place to see them is in bars and restaurants. When people sit down, they lay their phones on the table, for all the world to see (unless it's an embarassment). But since I don't frequent such places (what with 4 kids, and time...) However, the fellow in Warsaw uses his.

But, in my mind, that raises a question. I don't know of any unlimited data plans, and certainly, there's nothing specific for the iPhone.

But here's a thought, here are bunches of iPhones, but not being used? waiting for buyers? IMO, that can't be good. But in any case, a limited, jailbroken iPhone just isn't so useful, other than as a status symbol.

(Hoping my Treo arrives today)

-Jon

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