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Analysts Differ on Meaning of iPhone Shortage

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2008 at 12:40 PM - by

There is a widely reported shortage of iPhones in Apple retail stores. Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster thinks it might be an early sign of a 3G iPhone. Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconagi says no, according to a report at Barron's on Wednesday.

Toni Sacconagi thinks there might be a better explanation for the shortage because none of the AT&T stores in the U.S. are reporting supply problems. Nor are O2 or Carphone Warehouse in the UK reporting a shortage.

Neither does Mr. Sacconagi see any reason for a sudden jump in demand. On the other hand, Sony Ericsson a few weeks ago cited some unspecified component shortages. If Apple is suffering the same parts shortage, then they had a choice to make late in last quarter as to where to ship the iPhones they did have. Mr. Sacconagi pointed out in his note to investors that Apple gets sales credit for shipments to, for example, AT&T but not to its own Apple retail stores.

"Apple’s distribution partners would likely be extremely upset if Apple managed the product transition only for its own stores," the analyst said. He continued, [that] "rules out that the stock-out is attributable to the imminent launch of a 3G phone, additional iPhone models or a price cut."

However, Mr. Sacconagi does believe the 3G iPhone will be introduced around mid 2008.

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