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RBC: Revised Apple Sales Model Equals 14M iPhones in 2008

Monday, May 5th, 2008 at 2:55 PM - by

Mike Abramsky with RBC said in a note to investors on Monday that Apple's estimate of 10M iPhones to be sold in 2008 is too low and expects the number to be 14 million.

The analyst believes that Apple's access to the 3G network, new kinds of carrier deals in Europe and Asia, and new interest in the iPhone 2.0 apps will propel sales beyond Apple's estimate.

Mr. Abramsky has come to the same conclusion as many others, namely, that Apple will reduce exclusivity, allow carriers to subsidize and, finally, sell an unlocked iPhone. He noted that even without revenue sharing, an unlocked iPhone still meets Apple's expectations for Gross Profit Margins.

The projection for 2009 was set at 24 million iPhones.

It's not atypical for Apple to publicly underestimate its sales expectations and then exceed them. It's part of the cult of success that drives the popularity of its products.

iPO notes that that Apple's 10M sales number was set a long time ago, and made well before the reality of the popularity of the iPhone set it. Keeping that number at 10M is a good way for Apple to exceed expectations by juggling the terms of sale to their financial advantage.

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