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Analysts Predictions for 2009 iPhone Sales All Over the Map

Monday, June 23rd, 2008 at 1:20 PM - by

Analysts who've been sizing up Apple's worldwide prospects for 2009 iPhone sales have come up with widely different numbers.

On Monday, Andy Hargreaves with Pacific Crest forecasted that Apple will sell just 15.5 million iPhones in 2009. That's as low as some analysts are predicting for 2008 alone.

Last week, Oppenheimer analyst Yair Reiner set his projection at 15.2 million in 2008 and a hefty 33.2 million in 2009. On June 6, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster stated his belief that Apple could sell 40 million of the smartphones in 2009.

Whether the significantly lower numbers suggest a trend or merely differing analytical techniques by the analysts is not clear. The one thing that is clear is that every analyst sees a dramatic increase in worldwide sales in 2009 thanks to the new iPhone 3G's compatibility with worldwide wireless networks and its GPS capabilities. Figuring out just how many Apple will sell, however, not only remains elusive but also seems to have no relationship to Apple's share price of late.

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geoduck said:

member since 30 Dec 2003 with 1922 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jun 23, 2008 1:43 pm

Apple will sell one (1) iPhone on 2009. They will in all likelihood go on to sell more, but I can unequivocally guarantee they will sell one.

This means mine is the only prediction likely to be correct.

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A guest said: (hide)

Mon Jun 23, 2008 3:03 pm

I am personally responsible for the purchasing of 7 iPhones. Only two of those are actually with AT&T. If Apple thinks that tying people down to AT&T they are abandoning their core users who mostly like to tinker and mod things. For now, no amount of hype will make me recommend anyone buying another iPhone unless they use their phone exclusively for surfing while not in free Wi-Fi range.

I am playing wait and see to find out if Apple is even going to allow people to buy the phone without activation. If they don't I am not going to even consider buying one until after January '09.

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vasic said:

member since 09 Aug 2005 with 279 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jun 23, 2008 3:16 pm

Core users tinkerers? I don't think you got the difinition for 'core users' right. Their core users are mainstream consumers. The tinkerers are fringe users, who don't even represent a blip on their radar.

As for me, I'm grateful Apple lowered the entry price and offset that by their plan. For me, it's easier to pay less upfront and pay slightly higher monthly rate. And for that SMS allowance that got axed, I don't use SMS, so it won't matter.

While it would be nice if they eventually allowed unlocking (and I don't see why not, if they're now roping people in with that two-year contract at the time of purchase). I thavel overseas at least one a year; rather than using an old Sony-Ericsson while I'm there, it would be nice to use the iPhone.

And on that 'surfing while in Wi-Fi range', my iPhone will be used for music and videos, podcasts, phone calls, as well as web surfing. Even if all of the surfing were to be done on WiFi, it would still make the iPhone the best possible phone out there.

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Tiger said:

member since 17 Jun 2003 with 1018 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Mon Jun 23, 2008 3:17 pm

Great headline. Not only are the predictions all over the map, but the sales are too!

As for abandoning such and such users, it's not abandonment, it's admonishment. They don't want you tinkering with this specific product (for whatever internal reasons they have). It's a big wag of the finger in your face. After all, they are under no obligation to allow it to begin with. Just because they have up to this point doesn't mean they always will. We all have seen how things change. Some good, some bad. Some neither. Just a fact of life.

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