Some analysts, according to Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, have grown increasingly concerned that the impact of prepaid phones in the worldwide market dilutes Apple's opportunity. As a result, they're downwardly revised their projections for Apple's iPhone 3G sales in 2009. Mr. Munster's analysis shows a different story.

In some worldwide markets, customers will have to pay US$600 or more for a prepaid iPhone, that is an unsubsidized iPhone without long-term contracts.

In his report published on Monday, Gene Munster argued that his model shows that only about one in nine iPhones will be sold in that manner and that the rest will be under contract. The result will be that Apple will still capture 17 percent of the global smartphone market of 270 million in CY2009. That equates to over 45 million units.

Mr. Munster based his forecast on the fact that in the U.S. Apple captured 20 percent of the market with an iPhone priced at US$400. He also expects markets not yet announced, Russia and China, to open up near the start of 2009.

The PJC analyst provided the following breakdown of expected market share by region in CY2008 and CY2009.

Source: Piper Jaffray

Note: EMEA is an acronym for "Europe, Middle East and Africa."

The bottom line was that PJC reaffirms a buy rating for AAPL and estimates 12.9 million iPhones sold in CY2008 and 45 million in 2009.