News

Piper Jaffray: One Million iPhone 3Gs Sold - But Not All in Customer Hands [UPDATED]

On Monday, Apple published a press release that it had sold one million iPhone 3Gs as of Sunday. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster agreed, but pointed out that Apple's definition of sold is not what it seems.

The catch is that Apple counts iPhones sold in its stores as an immediate sale, but iPhones delivered to AT&T and overseas carriers also count as a "sale" into the channel. That iPhone may still be in transit, in the warehouse, or on the shelves but may not yet be actually sold to the end customer.

Mr. Munster's estimate of the actual number of iPhones sold over the weekend was initially 425,000 worldwide. Later, that was revised to the 1M number sold worldwide.

Of course, considering the demand for the iPhone 3G, those "sold" iPhones in the process of being delivered to carrier partners are likely to go very fast and won't sit on the shelves for long. In fact, the new iPhone 3G is sold out in many locations. As a result, the channel sales may be roughly the same as the customer sales. In comparison to the initial launch in 2007, Mr. Munster pointed out that it took 74 days for Apple to sell one million iPhone 2Gs.

Mr. Munster, in a note to investors obtained by iPO, forecasted that Apple would sell 4.1 million iPhone 3Gs by the end of September. The demand for the new Apple smartphone must be tempered by constrained supplies, he said.

The PJC analyst provided an estimate, by country, of the iPhones sold into the channel over the weekend:


Source: Piper Jaffray
[UPDATE: this article was updated with additional information from PJC for clarity.]

3 comments from the community.

You can post your own below.

+ show options

Your current settings, click to change: Sort Oldest First, Show Guest Posts, Hide Community Stats

Sir Harry Flashman said:

member since 08 Feb 2007 with 792 posts, unranked, send him a message or view his profile

Question. Does Apple sell iPhones to AT&T, and other non-Apple stores, which in turn resells them? If so then indeed the phones were sold, of course they may return any unsold phones to Apple. This might explain why AT&T store did not have as much inventory as Apple retail stores, managers have to decide how much inventory to keep on hand. I don't know how the system works, I am just pondering so if some can shed light on the process I would appreciate it.

Quote this post ↓

A guest said: (hide)

I think that this analyst seriously needs to re-evaluate his estimates wrt. Canada and Europe.

Rogers' flagship store had only 100 iPhones on hand, and most other stores had 40-60 maximum. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/07/11/iphone-first-day.html

Meanwhile, Swisscom's main shop in Bern, Switzerland had an allotment 3000 iPhones that were all sold on the first day. http://www.appleinsider.com/print.php?id=4343

Quote this post ↓

A guest said: (hide)

Gene needs to get beyond his embarrassment for underestimating iPhone 3G sales. Besides the fact that, from Apple's perspective (as well as for tax purposes), a sale into the channel *is* a sale, his comment seems to suggest that there are over a half-million units floating around the channel waiting to sell through. And yet, he puts up sales projections per country that total a million sales. Whis is it, Gene?

Quote this post ↓

Post Your Comments

  Remember Me

Not a member? Register now. You can post comments without logging in, but they'll show up as a "guest" post.


Please enter the word exactly as you see it in the image above. Registered users aren't prompted for this. Having trouble reading the image get a new one.