Windows Mobile will eventually die for classic economic and market reasons that have affected similar products, thanks to the "three standards" rule, according to Robert X. Cringely at PBS on Thursday. Moreover, Microsoft can't afford to be in the next big market where Windows isn't first or second.

Mr. Cringely's analysis is in sharp contrast to the comments made earlier in the week by Microsoft's Robbie Bach who sees Windows Mobile having its own day in the sun after the fuss over the Apple iPhone "normailzes." Mr. Cringely's argument starts as follows:

"There is generally room in any technology marketplace for three competing standards," Mr. Cringely wrote. "Notice I say 'standards,' not 'brands.' There can be many brands of road vehicles, but they generally come down to cars, trucks, and motorcycles -- each a standard. In personal computers we have Windows, Macintosh, and Linux (or similar Unix workstation variant). In HVAC systems, just to stretch the point, there are radiant, forced air, or evaporative systems -- again three standards."

Windows Mobile 6

The noted computer industry observer noted that mobile phones are showing a similar distribution. Symbian is growing old, the development language is non-standard, and the UI is not very friendly and getting uglier. In time, mobile phone makers will migrate to the more modern Android.

In terms of the iPhone, Mr. Cringely noted, "This is not a time to bet against the iPhone, which is changing the entire landscape of not just smartphones but mobile phones in general. For all its teething problems, there is a new sheriff in town and his name is iPhone. We'll see nothing but progress and market-share gains there for at least another two product cycles or three years."

"If I had to bet right this moment on the mobile 85-10-5 of 2011, I'd say iPhone, Android, then RIM, Symbian, or something completely new from behind Door Number Three," he added.

The result will be that, in the long run Windows Mobile will fade away. "There way things are headed now, given that Microsoft can't really afford to be anything but first or second on the platform that supplants Windows, I'd say Windows Mobile will be dead," Mr. Cringely concluded.