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News
How Long Until Apple’s Share of Digital Music Declines?
Sunday, August 21st, 2005 at 3:00 PM - by Brad Cook
While Apple continues to enjoy a dominant position in the sale of MP3 players as well as legal music downloads, such a position is likely to decline eventually, according to a Billboard magazine article.
Writer Antony Bruno quotes Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who notes: "It's inevitable that over time their market share declines. It's safe to say that nobody can sustain an 80 percent market share in a consumer electronics business for more than two or three years. It's pretty much impossible."
Mr, Bruno adds: "Privately, record company executives say they can't wait. Not because they want to see Apple stumble, but because a less dominant Apple means a more robust market for digital music. The company by itself cannot bring digital music to account for 25 percent of all music sales, as labels hope it will by 2009."
While the arrival of MP3 players and digital music sales herald a change in the way that industry does business, Mr. Bruno quotes Gartner G2 analyst Mike McGuire, who observes: "Some people at labels are acting like all this is over because Apple has it. Guys, 98 percent of music purchases (are) still coming from somewhere other than online."
According to Mr. Bruno's anonymous music industry sources, "Apple stubbornly disregards their suggestions for drawing in new digital music customers. They say they would like more flexibility on track pricing and promotions. But more than anything, labels want to see the iPod become interoperable with music services other than iTunes."
Mr. Bruno concludes by noting that while Samsung, Sony and Microsoft will this fall launch fresh salvos in the MP3 wars, "no one assumes Apple will go without a fight. It is expected to introduce a video-capable iPod in September and finally unveil its iTunes-compatible mobile phone with Motorola. It is also rumored to be working on a subscription service with the help of a former Xbox Live executive."
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