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Oh the Games You'll Play
The App Store: ‘Day of the Indie Developer’?
Tuesday, February 24th, 2009 at 10:15 AM - by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
It's long been assumed that the days of independent game developers being able to compete with companies like Electronic Arts or Activision are long gone: videogames have grown so complex, the thinking goes, that the little guys simply can't put in the same resources. In addition, as Eric Litman, CEO of mobile analytics firm Medialets, told me, retailers have major incentives to work with big companies in the distribution channels.
Apple, however, "has broken the mold with the App Store, by moving away from the cell phone carrier," Mr. Litman told me. As a result, he explained, "distribution is democratized: it's very difficult to buy your way to the top because everyone has the same level of access."
In addition, he said, "the newness of the platform and its hardware limitations actually work against the big companies, because small developers can come up with novel concepts and pursue them at low cost. That allows for breakaway hits like iShoot and Trism."
Those two games are among several independent success stories to come out of the App Store since it launched last July. iShoot was created by Ethan Nicholas, a Sun Microsystems engineer who coded it in his free time and sold $600,000 worth of copies in January, allowing him to quit his job. Last fall, Trism developer Steve Demeter scooped up $250,000 in profits in two months.
Mr. Litman said that his company works with developers who have sold "in the high single-digit millions of downloads at the App Store, and some of those companies are just a few people." Nicholas worked solo, while Demeter had a little help from a friend and a contracted designer.
The Gold Rush
Those successes have led to a gold rush of sorts at the App Store, where over 22,000 apps currently take up residence. Pinning down the reasons why a game rockets to the top of the rankings is tough to do -- "The App Store is really a big black box that we're just in the infancy of figuring out," Mr. Demeter told me -- but Mr. Nicholas believes that his release of a Lite version of iShoot was likely the reason for his success.
He provided me with a graph of iShoot sales to back up his point. "Sales increased exponentially," he explained, "doubling every day after iShoot Lite was released. Clearly, iShoot Lite managed to generate a tremendous amount of word-of-mouth, as that's the only thing that can explain exponential growth like that."
iShoot sales
Mr. Litman concurred, telling me: "One of the most successful strategies is cross-promotion. The developers we work with are building many small apps to cross-promote and upsell, as opposed to making one big app. It's a footprint game."
He added: "You get one shot on release day to be on the What's New list and drive traffic. Developers who can gain some measure of audience can leverage that traffic into paid versions of their apps, as well as sales of their other apps."
However, Mr. Demeter disagreed: "Nobody knows yet what makes an iPhone game successful while another fails. We have theories, but they're mostly based around the marketing research done on prior gaming consoles. According to the [iShoot] developer, his entire strategy was to simply release a free demo version of the game, a strategy already in use by hundreds if not thousands of other iPhone game developers who haven't hit it nearly as big."
He said that his plan, which he acknowledged was formulated when the App Store housed not quite 150 apps, was "to go for the App Store while it was still low-hanging fruit. You can't really apply our strategy to today's App Store; it's a different market nowadays."
What the Future Holds
Mr. Demeter, who told me that sales of Trism "are holding up well," said that his future plans involve "releasing spinoffs, ports, and sequels, keeping the brand fresh in peoples' minds." He plans to bring the game to the Nintendo Wii, and his first spinoff will be Trismology, which will allow users to create and share their own Trism puzzles.
Mr. Nicholas said: "What I've made so far off of iShoot will last a few years, properly managed and invested. And that's assuming I never make another penny off of it, which obviously isn't going to be the case. When you consider things like licensing it for sale on other platforms, making the inevitable sequel, and all that, iShoot could conceivably keep me going for quite some time." iShoot 2.0 will feature online play and a weapons editor. After that, he plans on issuing "a couple more iShoot updates before putting it to bed and moving on to my next game."
As for the continued democratization of the App Store, and whether little developers will remain viable, Mr. Demeter mused: "Big companies are the only ones who can afford to take the risk in putting a lot of polish into an app, and still afford to risk taking a loss by selling at a low price. On the other hand, big companies are slower to adapt and innovate. Several smaller iPhone developers have already hit it big with a unique concept executed nimbly and effectively, such as Smule's Ocarina. Sure, a big company can come in and steal the idea, but the original will have already made its money by then. This is something I don't see changing in the future."
He added: "Ironic as this sounds, I am starting to feel bad for venture-backed companies, who have staffed up quite a bit in '08 to try and ride the iPhone wave. Every developer, artist, or designer these companies have recruited have given up the opportunity to independently release a game on the App Store. Instead, they have been convinced that by joining Company X, they can make great iPhone games that will outshine the competition. And yes, these companies' games are very polished, but for some reason, they haven't hit #1 yet. I expect it must make their blood boil to see a game which has a fraction of the production values & marketing budget sit mysteriously at the #1 spot day after day (not to mention how their investors must feel)."
Mr. Nicholas told me: "The biggest factor is simply that casual games work so well on the iPhone: the fact that you will always have it with you and can spend five minutes playing a game while you're stuck in line somewhere makes it eminently suited to casual play. Casual play is the one area where a big game studio's resources don't necessarily make much of a difference. No single developer could ever create something like, say, Mario Galaxy. But on the iPhone, you don't have to make Mario Galaxy to be successful -- you can 'settle' for creating the next Tetris or Bejeweled."
Mr. Litman said: "Today is the day of the indie developer on the App Store. Nobody has established success criteria for mobile game publishing." As a result, it's anyone's game to win.
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